Listen — I'm not saying you can't get wealthy on SpaceX shares.

I'm saying the odds aren't in your favor. And I'm saying that's a different sentence than the one you're telling yourself.

SpaceX did roughly $20 billion in revenue last year. Net income was about –$5 billion. The valuation floating around is $2.5 trillion (as of 6/17/26).

Sit with that. A trillion-dollar price tag on a company losing five billion a year.

That number isn't held up by fundamentals. It's held up by sentiment — by a story so good that nobody wants to be the one who didn't own it.

First, let's be honest about what this is

There's a line between investing and gambling, and almost nobody chasing a pre-IPO darling will say which side they're on.

Investing in stock is buying a claim on future cash flows at a price where the math can work in your favor.

Gambling is buying a story at a price set by how badly other people want the same story.

Neither is shameful. I gamble sometimes. But I know I'm doing it. I size it like a bet, not like a retirement plan. The danger isn't betting on SpaceX — it's dressing up a bet as an investment and then being shocked when it behaves like a bet.

Ask yourself the only honest question: am I underwriting a business, or am I buying a headline?

Let's grant the dream. Say SpaceX is the most important company of the century. What has to be true for today's buyer to win?

At a $2.5T valuation on negative earnings, you're not paying for what SpaceX is. You're paying for what it has to become and the bar is brutal.

To grow into that price, SpaceX has to execute nearly flawlessly across two enormous bets at once: Starlink scaling into a globally dominant, high-margin connectivity utility, and Starship turning launch economics upside down before the competition catches up. Not one. Both. For years. Without a serious stumble.

And here's the part most forget: even if all of that happens, most of the gains already have an owner. They accrued to Elon and the early investors who bought in when the risk was real and the price was low. By the time a share reaches you, the asymmetry has been harvested. You're buying the back half of the trade at the front-half price.

That's not pessimism. That's just where you sit in the cap table.

Let me steelman it, because the bulls aren't stupid. Starlink is a real business with real, growing cash flow. Starship is a genuine option on rewriting the cost of getting to orbit.

And the "Elon premium" — his ability to pull off things that look impossible — is not nothing.

All true. None of it changes your entry price.

A great company bought at a gambler's valuation is still a gamble. The business can win and you can still lose, simply because you paid for ten years of perfection up front.

The average retail investor will not make money chasing SpaceX. Not because the company fails — but because the price already assumes it won't.

A few weeks ago, I made the case for $STRC ( ▼ 0.44% ). (Look it up here: https://scar-wealth.beehiiv.com/p/20-tax-free-returns).

I use it as a core component of my wealth system because it is designed to be predictable.

Over the last two weeks, that predictability has gone out the window. What happened?

Sentiment.

Strategy hasn’t changed. Bitcoin hasn’t changed. The economics of both are the same. Risk is the same. In fact, I’d argue the risks are slightly lower.

But the market sentiment took a dive. Strategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, was clear in announcing that he would sell bitcoin, if it was accretive to the shareholder in the long run.

He then proceeded to do exactly that. And the market sentiment tanked.

X.com is full of commentary on what has happened and 99% of it is pure hearsay. Main stream media has picked it up and no one has done the math. STRC’s risk profile is entirely unchanged. The dividends are safe. The price is in the gutter.

And I simply wait it out. My wealth system does not require STRC to be at $100 every month. In fact, I’ll be making a mild gain from this.

STRC will likely have a higher dividend at the next ex-dividend date.

Don’t let market sentiment derail you. Study what you invest in. Keep it with conviction.

Disclaimer: All material is provided for educational purposes only and does not guarantee any financial results. This is not financial, legal, or tax advice. I am not a financial professional. Results vary and are dependent on individual effort, timing and circumstances. There is no solicitation to invest.